Executive Summary

Q3 2024 GAAP net loss narrowed to $56M (−$1.18 per share) from a $185M (−$3.94 per share) loss in Q3 2023, driven by lower PREPA-related loss and LAE at National and reduced VIE losses at MBIA Insurance Corp .
Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Loss was approximately breakeven at $0.174M (−$0.00 per diluted share), a sharp improvement versus −$138M (−$2.92) in Q3 2023, reflecting decreased losses and LAE primarily tied to PREPA at National .
Management reiterated that clarity on PREPA outcomes is needed before restarting a sale process for the company; mediation has been extended through January 31 and parties await the First Circuit rehearing decision on PREPA bondholder rights .
National’s statutory net income rebounded to $19M in Q3 (from −$133M in Q3 2023), while MBIA Inc. liquidity stood at $326M; book value per share was −$39.19 (vs −$32.56 at YE 2023) .
Near-term stock reaction catalysts: First Circuit rehearing decision on PREPA liens, mediation outcomes by Jan 31, potential National as-of-right dividend before YE, and any renewed strategic process indicators .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“Revenues and expenses both improved… which yielded a lower net loss than last year's third quarter” (lower VIE losses; lower loss/LAE tied to PREPA) .
National delivered statutory net income of $19M in Q3 2024, a strong swing vs −$133M in Q3 2023, driven by lower PREPA-related loss/LAE .
Adjusted Net Loss essentially breakeven (−$0.174M; −$0.00 per share), showing underlying operating improvement after excluding MBIA Corp and fair-value items/VIE effects .

What Went Wrong

GAAP book value per share declined to −$39.19 at 9/30/24 from −$32.56 at YE 2023, primarily due to the YTD net loss (−$396M) .
Ongoing PREPA uncertainty (claim >$800M) continues to delay any restart of the company sale process; management views “substantially reduced uncertainty” as necessary before engaging .
MBIA Insurance Corp statutory capital fell to $87M and CPR to $358M (down from YE 2023), reflecting year‑to‑date losses, even as Q3 posted a small statutory profit .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results: Prior Two Quarters and Current Quarter

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$86	$254	$56
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)	−$1.84	−$5.34	−$1.18
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	−$24	−$138	−$0.174
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) per Share ($)	−$0.52	−$2.90	−$0.00
Book Value per Share ($)	−$33.80	−$39.07	−$39.19
MBIA Inc. Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$376	$315	$326

YoY Comparison

Metric	Q3 2023	Q3 2024
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$185	$56
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)	−$3.94	−$1.18
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	−$138	−$0.174
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) per Share ($)	−$2.92	−$0.00

Segment Breakdown

Segment KPI	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
National – Gross Par Outstanding ($USD Billions)	$27.8	$27.0	$25.9
National – Statutory Capital ($USD Billions)	$1.1	$0.969	$1.0
National – Claims-Paying Resources ($USD Billions)	$1.7	$1.6	$1.6
National – Leverage Ratio (Gross Par / Stat Capital)	25:1	28:1	26:1
National – Fixed Income + Cash ($USD Billions)	$1.4	$1.4	$1.3
MBIA Insurance Corp – Statutory Capital ($USD Millions)	$119	$85	$87
MBIA Insurance Corp – CPR ($USD Millions)	$468	$355	$358
MBIA Insurance Corp – Fixed Income + Cash ($USD Millions)	$151	$149	$149

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Share Repurchase Authorization Remaining ($USD Millions)	$71 (as of 5/2)	$71 (as of 7/30)	$71 (as of 10/31)
Shares Outstanding (Millions)	51.3 (as of 5/2)	51.0 (as of 7/30)	51.0 (as of 10/31)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Formal financial guidance (Revenue/EPS/margins/OpEx/tax)	FY/Q3 2024	None provided	None provided	Maintained
National dividend (statutory “as‑of‑right”)	FY 2024	N/A	Expected to be paid before YE 2024	Informational (no change in policy)

Management did not issue quantitative guidance ranges; disclosures centered on posting financial results and statutory supplements, with a standard as‑of‑right dividend expectation at National .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Current Period (Q3 2024)	Trend
PREPA restructuring/legal	Awaiting plan confirmation and First Circuit appeals; National PREPA gross par $610M	First Circuit decision positive; Oversight Board response raised uncertainty; reserve increased	Mediation extended to Jan 31; awaiting First Circuit rehearing; PREPA claim >$800M; uncertainty delays sale process	Ongoing legal uncertainty; mediation path continues
Strategic alternatives (sale process)	Sale process contingent on PREPA resolution	Maintain stance: resolve PREPA before sale	Still contingent; feedback suggests waiting for clarity; back‑end contingent structures considered but not beneficial yet	Deferred pending PREPA clarity
Capital management (dividends, buybacks, debt)	Strong holding company liquidity; opportunistic debt repurchases; buyback capacity	Repurchased GFL MTNs ($26M) and senior notes ($16M); authorization $71M; 51M shares; focus on liquidity	Liquidity $326M; no share repurchases; authorization $71M; National as‑of‑right dividend planned	Stable liquidity; selective capital actions
National portfolio run‑off and leverage	National gross par down to $27.8B; leverage 25:1	Gross par down to $27.0B; leverage 28:1	Gross par down to $25.9B; leverage 26:1; CPR $1.6B	Continued amortization; leverage fluctuates
Operating expenses focus	Indicated trend down; continued focus	Continued focus; multi‑segment expense context	Not a focal metric in Q3 commentary; overall lower expenses YoY referenced	Ongoing discipline
Other credits (LCOR Alexandria office)	Not discussed	Classified credit; plan expected; immaterial impact anticipated	Not discussed	Monitoring; expected manageable

Management Commentary

“For our third quarter 2024 financial results, our revenues and expenses both improved… which yielded a lower net loss than last year's third quarter. Revenues were higher largely due to lower losses related to variable interest entities associated with MBIA Insurance Corp. and expenses were lower largely due to lower loss and loss adjustment expense associated with National PREPA exposure.” — William Fallon, CEO .
“Given the uncertainty associated with the possible outcomes for National's PREPA bankruptcy claim in excess of $800 million we expect that substantially reduced uncertainty… will likely be needed before we can restart the process to sell the company.” — William Fallon .
“The company reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $56 million… The company's adjusted net loss… was $174,000 or essentially $0 per share… Favorable change was primarily due to the lower loss in LAE at National… related to PREPA.” — Joseph Schachinger, CFO .
“National reported statutory net income of $19 million for the third quarter of 2024 compared to a statutory net loss of $133 million for the third quarter of 2023.” — Joseph Schachinger .
“As of September 30, 2024, MBIA Inc.’s liquidity position totaled $326 million.” — Financial results exhibit .

Q&A Highlights

Capital returns: Management will pursue National’s as‑of‑right dividend before YE but is cautious about extraordinary dividends until there’s further PREPA progress; excess capital framed via regulatory context rather than rating targets .
PREPA claim dynamics: Analyst inferred ~47% recovery on a $122M gross claim paid in July; management agreed the analytical approach was “logical and reasonable” without specifying exact assumptions .
Strategic alternatives: Contingent sale structures have been considered; feedback to date suggests they are not currently beneficial, but remain possible if conditions change .
Cooperation agreement and exposure sales: Cooperation agreement with bondholders extended into March 2025; MBIA retains ability to sell PREPA exposure; limited trading interest noted in recent years .
Macropolitical angle: Potential for faster PREPA resolution under new U.S. and Puerto Rico leadership seen as a possible catalyst; management supportive if it accelerates outcomes .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue (S&P Global) for Q3 2024 were unavailable due to access limits at the time of this analysis; MBIA does not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance in its releases .
Given the lack of consensus data, no beat/miss determination versus estimates is provided; investors should anchor revisions on statutory/segment trends and PREPA resolution timing .

Metric	Q3 2024 Actual	Q3 2024 Consensus (S&P Global)	Surprise
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)	−$1.18	Unavailable	N/A
Revenue ($USD)	Not disclosed in release	Unavailable	N/A

Key Takeaways for Investors

The quarter showed tangible improvement: GAAP net loss narrowed materially YoY; Adjusted results were essentially breakeven, reflecting lower PREPA-related loss/LAE and diminished VIE losses .
PREPA remains the fulcrum: mediation extended to Jan 31 and First Circuit rehearing decision are gating factors for strategic actions; monitor legal milestones closely .
National’s statutory recovery is encouraging: Q3 statutory net income (+$19M) and steady CPR ($1.6B) support resilience amid portfolio amortization and run‑off .
Balance sheet/liquidity: Holding company liquidity of $326M affords optionality (debt repurchases, buybacks), though Q3 had no share repurchases; authorization remains $71M .
Book value remains negative (−$39.19/share), driven by YTD losses; expect volatility tied to PREPA outcomes and MBIA Corp/Zohar fair‑value items .
Near-term trading setup: stock likely sensitive to PREPA court decisions, any dividend signals, and renewed sale-process indications; downside capped by liquidity and CPR, upside levered to resolution .
Medium-term thesis: value realization hinges on clearing PREPA uncertainty, ongoing portfolio run‑off at National, and disciplined capital deployment at the holding company .

Appendix: Additional Relevant Q3 2024 Disclosures

Q3 press release and 8‑K directed investors to detailed operating supplements and statutory statements; no formal financial guidance was provided .
National: gross par outstanding declined to $25.9B; leverage ratio 26:1; fixed income + cash $1.3B; statutory capital $1.0B; CPR $1.6B .
MBIA Insurance Corp: statutory capital $87M; CPR $358M; fixed income + cash $149M .
Share count 51.0M; buyback authorization remaining $71M; Q3 had no share repurchases .

Sources: MBIA Q3 2024 8‑K Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1 ; Q3 2024 earnings call transcript ; Q3 2024 press releases ; Q2 2024 8‑K and transcript ; Q1 2024 8‑K and transcript .

MBIA INC (MBI)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary